Chinaspent$21 billionon military exercises in theTaiwanStrait, the East and SouthChinaSeas and the WesternPacificlastyear,nearly40%higherthan in 2023, according to Taiwan government estimates based on its tracking of aircraft and ships and working out the cost of fuel and other expenses.
The internal research byTaiwan’s armed forces, reviewed by Reuters and corroborated by fourTaiwanofficials, offers rare details of whereChina’s defense spending is probably going as Beijing expands its military footprint and scope of itsdrills, alarming regional capitals and Washington.
Chinabudgeted 1.67 trillion yuan ($233.47 billion) in defense spending forlastyear, but diplomats widely believe that number is under-reported.Chinadoes not give any breakdown on how the money isspent.
The officials, who were briefed on the research, declined to be identified because of the sensitivity of the matter.
NeitherChina’s defense ministry nor itsTaiwanAffairs Office responded to requests for comment.China, which viewsTaiwanas its own territory over the objections of Taipei’s government, has repeatedly said its military spending is transparent and presents no threat.
Reuters could not independently confirm the accuracy of theTaiwanese estimate. Experts said the report’s methodology was feasible and could provide valuable information, although they cautioned that it necessarily included some guesswork.
Taiwan’s military compiled itsestimatesin a report this month based onTaiwanese surveillance and intelligence on Chinese military activity in the Bohai Sea off northeastChina, the EastChinaSea, theTaiwanStrait, the SouthChinaSea, and the WesternPacific.
The reports talliedChina’s naval and air missions there in 2024, then estimated how much fuel and other consumables would cost for each hour of activity. The total was around 152 billion yuan ($21.25 billion), including maintenance, repairs and salaries, the report and the officials briefed on the research said.
That estimated spending represented about 9% ofChina’s reported2024 military spending, up from 7% in 2023 based on the sameestimates, according to Reuters calculations based on the research.
“China’s ongoing military expansion and grey-zone provocations are severely undermining peace and stability in the Indo-Pacificregion,”Taiwan’s defense ministry said in a statement to Reuters, which did not address the report’s spending and otherestimates.
In 2024, Chinese aircraft, including J-10 fighter jets, H-6 bombers, and drones, made nearly 12,000 flights in the region, amounting to about 37,000 hours in the air, the report shows. Those both represent roughly a 30% increase from theyearbefore, the officials said.
The Chinese navy mademorethan 86,000 sailings, including those of aircraft carriers and destroyers, amounting to a total time at sea ofmorethan 2 million hours, about a 20% increase from ayearago for both metrics, the report said.
Roughly 34% of the Chinese naval journeys were made in the highly contested SouthChinaSea, about 28% were in the EastChinaSea bordering Japan and South Korea, and nearly 14% were in the sensitiveTaiwanStrait, the report shows.
“They are trying to normalize their military power projection and intimidation around the first island chain,” said one of the officials briefed on the research.
The First Island Chain is an area that runs from Japan throughTaiwan, the Philippines and on to Borneo, enclosingChina’s coastal seas as well as the disputed SouthChinaSea.
China’s navy has also been operating even further from the country’s shores, including participating in anti-piracy patrols off Somalia, while the United States has reported an uptick in Chinese naval movements aroundAlaskaand the northernPacific.
The research is designed to helpTaiwanese policymakers understand howChinaallocates military resources across regions, as well as to gauge Beijing’s pace of military expansion, the officials briefed on the reports said.
The 152 billion yuan figure amounts to about a quarter ofTaiwan’s 2024 defense budget.
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