The big trade for retail investors right now is not in Opendoor or Palantir Technologies . It’s something called the “debasement trade,” according to JPMorgan. The bank defines it as a trade that “reflects a combination of factors, which in our client conversations range from elevated geopolitical and policy uncertainty, to uncertainty about the longer-term inflation backdrop, to concerns about ‘debt debasement’ due to persistently high government deficits across major economies, to concerns about Fed independence, to waning confidence in fiat currencies in certain emerging markets in particular, and to a broader diversification away from the US dollar.” This trade is contributing to major gains in gold and bitcoin — while denting the dollar. Gold futures have soared about 48% this year to record levels. On Thursday, the metal traded north of $3,900 per ounce. The U.S. dollar , meanwhile, has taken a beating — dropping nearly 10% in 2025. Bitcoin has also soared more than 27% year to date. BTC.CM= @GC.1,.DXY YTD mountain Gold, dollar and bitcoin in 2025 The trade also reflect retail investors are less confident in governments’ abilities to rein in their increasing debts, while worries about central bank independence soar. President Donald Trump this year pushed for the firing of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, alleging mortgage fraud. The Supreme Court ruled Wednesday Cook can keep her job pending oral arguments in January . Trump has also berated Fed Chair Jerome Powell in public, calling for him to lower rates. JPMorgan discovered this trade from retail investors by observing that flows into spot bitcoin and gold ETFs, two products widely used by smaller investors, have surged since the White House’s “liberation day” tariff announcement in April. Institutions are also partaking in the debasement trade, JPMorgan strategist Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou noted. He said in a note institutions have been buying bitcoin and gold futures since 2024. “However, in the most recent months the buying impulse in bitcoin and gold futures has lagged that of ETFs, suggesting that retail investors have been embracing the debasement trade more strongly than institutional investors,” he said. ( Learn the best 2026 strategies from inside the NYSE with Josh Brown and others at CNBC PRO Live. Tickets and info here . )
