Traders in swaps markets are putting a more than 99 per cent probability on a quarter-point rate cut from the European Central Bank on Thursday, taking its key deposit rate to 2 per cent.
LSEG data shows a 99.3 per cent probability of a 0.25 percentage point cut when the decision is announced at 13:15 London time, up from 97.5 per cent just a few days ago.
If confirmed, the rate will fall to its lowest in more than two years and to half the rate in June 2024, when the bank started to ease monetary conditions.
Traders have dismissed the likelihood of no move at all, and are putting a 0.7 per cent chance on a bumper half-point cut.
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