Indian stock market: The Indian stock market bounced back with solid gains on Friday, February 20, after posting sharp losses of more than 1% each in the previous session.
The 30-share Sensex rose 317 points, or 0.38%, to close at 82,814.71, while the Nifty 50 advanced 117 points, or 0.46%, to settle at 25,571.25. Broader markets showed mixed trends, with the BSE 150 MidCap Index gaining 0.44%, whereas the BSE 250 SmallCap Index declined 0.19%.
“Markets ended the week with modest gains, supported by value buying in fundamentally strong stocks that had recently corrected, despite mixed global cues. Sentiment remained positive during the first three sessions; however, heightened volatility in the final sessions turned participants cautious. Ultimately, the benchmark indices Nifty and Sensex settled at 25,571.25 and 61,172, respectively,” said Ajit Mishra, SVP, Research, Religare Broking Ltd.
Stock Market Outlook next week
According to Vinod Nair, Head of Research, Geojit Investments Limited, the market will closely monitor the developments in Trump’s global tariffs announcement, tensions between the US and Iran, crude oil price movements, and global monetary signals.
“Although volatility may stay elevated, strong domestic macro fundamentals and a supportive demand environment are expected to provide a cushion. The release of India’s GDP data next week will be keenly watched for its implications on earnings momentum and broader market positioning. Overall, markets are likely to trade within a range, with liquidity flows and global developments shaping short-term movements,” Nair said.
Top 5 triggers for the Indian stock market
1] Trump tariffs
Market investors will assess the impact of the Supreme Court of the United States’ ruling on tariffs on Friday, February 20. Any policy adjustment or legal interpretation affecting trade measures could have implications for global markets.
“Additionally, markets will monitor developments following a fresh executive order by the President of the United States, which may influence trade dynamics, tariff structures, and global risk sentiment. Clarity on the proposed India–US interim trade agreement, with Indian officials visiting the U.S. to finalise the legal framework, will also remain in focus,” Mishra of Religare Broking said.
2] India’s GDP data
On the domestic front, investors will track key data points such as GDP numbers, government budget figures, foreign exchange reserves, and year-on-year (YoY) infrastructure output.
The next quarterly GDP estimates based on the New Series will be released on Friday, February 27, the Ministry of Statistics & Programme Implementation said in a release.
3] F&O expiry
According to Mishra, markets are likely to remain volatile in the coming week, particularly with the monthly F&O expiry scheduled for February 24.
4] Gold and silver prices
Gold and silver remained resilient on Friday, 20 February, as investors continued to flock to safe-haven assets amid escalating tensions in the Middle East and military build-up by both Iran and the United States, even as the US Dollar Index headed for its strongest weekly gain since October.
Meanwhile, the April futures contract on Comex surged by $71 per troy ounce to touch an intraday high of $5,068, putting it on track to record a third straight week of gains.
“The commodity complex enters the week in a phase of controlled consolidation following sharp directional moves across energy and metals. Volatility has moderated after impulse expansions, and price action now reflects tactical repositioning rather than aggressive liquidation. Structurally, metals continue to trade within rising channel frameworks, while energy counters are approaching decisive supply zones. Market internals indicate absorption at higher levels in metals and breakout-retest behaviour in crude, whereas natural gas is testing overhead supply after a vertical short-covering rally,” said Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money.
5] FIIs and DIIs
Foreign portfolio investor (FPI) flows witnessed a notable shift in February, with FPIs turning net buyers on nine of the last sixteen trading sessions up to February 20. According to data from National Securities Depository Limited (NSDL), total FPI investments through exchanges during this period stood at ₹14,177.66 crore. In addition, FPIs invested ₹2,733.89 crore via the primary market, taking the overall investment for February through February 20 to ₹16,911.55 crore.
Sectoral allocation, however, showed significant divergence during the month. FPIs offloaded IT stocks aggressively following the Anthropic-related shock, while simultaneously increasing their exposure to financial services and capital goods sectors.
“The trend of FPI buying witnessed in February, so far, is likely to continue, going forward. A major factor driving the FPI inflows could be the improvement in corporate earnings. The Q3 FY 26 results indicate a clear pickup in corporate earnings with a 14.7% earnings growth. This trend is likely to continue in the rest of FY26, too. As per the early estimates, FY27 earnings growth is likely to be around 15 %. This will make Indian valuations fair and attractive for FPIs to turn buyers in India,” said VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Investments Limited.
Technical Outlook
Nifty
According to Mishra, the index closed at 25,571, maintaining a mildly positive bias but lacking strong follow-through.
“Crucial support is placed at 25,400; a break below this level could trigger a fresh decline toward 25,100, which corresponds to the gap area on the daily chart. On the upside, the 25,800–26,000 zone remains a key resistance band. A sustained move above 26,000 would be required to revive bullish momentum,” he said.
Bank Nifty
Meanwhile, on the Bank Nifty outlook, he said that the index outperformed and closed at 61,172 despite mixed trends among private banking majors.
“Immediate support is seen near 60,400, with stronger support at 59,600. Resistance is placed around 61,800; a decisive breakout above this level could extend gains toward the 63,000 zone. Its relative strength will remain critical for a decisive trend in the benchmark going forward,” Mishra added.
Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, not Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
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