The United States (US) Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) is set to publish its preliminary estimate of first-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on Thursday, with analysts expecting the data to show annualised growth at a solid 2.3%, a sharp rebound from the meagre 0.5% expansion recorded in the final quarter of 2025.
Markets brace for US growth data amid geopolitical woes…and a new Fed?
Investors are anxious ahead of Thursday’s release of the US preliminary GDP figures for the January-March period, which is generally seen as the most market-moving estimate of the three issued each quarter. Beyond headline growth, the report also includes fresh Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data, the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) preferred inflation gauge.
This quarter’s numbers are especially important, as market participants will look for early signs, if any at all, of the ongoing crisis in the Middle East, as well as delayed effects from Trump’s tariffs, all with the broader White House administration policies at the centre of the debate.
The release follows the Fed’s April 28-29 meeting, where the Committee delivered a widely anticipated “on hold” decision on the Fed Funds Target Range (FFTR).
Also included in the report is the GDP Price Index, commonly called the GDP deflator, which measures inflation across all domestically produced goods and services, including exports but excluding imports. These data will become more prominent amid the ongoing US-Iran conflict and its clear impact on crude Oil prices.
The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model, closely watched for its real-time tracking of economic activity, forecast a 1.2% expansion in Q1 GDP as of its April 21 update (from 1.3% set on April 9).
When will the GDP print be released, and how can it affect the US Dollar Index?
The US GDP report, due at 12:30 GMT on Thursday, could prove pivotal for the US Dollar (USD) in case of a big surprise in either direction, as markets remain almost exclusively focused on developments from the Middle East. Alongside the headline growth figure, markets will scrutinise updates to the GDP Price Index and the Q1 Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, key data points that could shift expectations for Federal Reserve policy and the Greenback’s direction.
A stronger-than-expected GDP print may temporarily ease fears of a stagflationary environment, potentially offering a tailwind for the current recovery of the buck.
The broader technical outlook for the US Dollar Index (DXY) remains slightly constructive amid the ongoing consolidative price action. The index is trading near its 200-day SMA at 98.53 and below its 200-week SMA at 103.13.
Downside levels remain in focus, with support eyed at 97.63 – April’s low. Any upside correction could first target the 2026 ceiling at 100.63 seen in late March, seconded by the March 2025 high of 104.68.
Momentum indicators lean bearish, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart near 47 and the Average Directional Index (ADX) just below 23, suggesting fading strength behind the recent upward move.
(This story was corrected on April 30 at 10:32 GMT to say that data is expected to show a sharp rebound from the meagre 0.5% expansion recorded in the final quarter of 2025, not of 2024.)
Economic Indicator
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures – Price Index (YoY)
The Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis on a monthly basis, measures the changes in the prices of goods and services purchased by consumers in the United States (US). The PCE Price Index is also the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) preferred gauge of inflation. The YoY reading compares the prices of goods in the reference month to the same month a year earlier. The core reading excludes the so-called more volatile food and energy components to give a more accurate measurement of price pressures.” Generally, a high reading is bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is bearish.
Economic Indicator
Gross Domestic Product Price Index
The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Price Index, released quarterly by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, measures the change in the prices of goods and services produced in the United States. The prices that Americans pay for imports aren’t included. Changes in the GDP price index are followed as an indicator of inflationary pressures, which may anticipate higher interest rates. A high reading is seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish.
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