The Indian Rupee (INR) faces intense selling pressure against the US Dollar (USD) in afternoon trading hours in India on Thursday. The USD/INR pair revisits the all-time high around 90.70 as the Indian Rupee slumps amid uncertainty surrounding trade talks between the United States (US) and India.
Investors remain cautious about whether the US and India will reach a consensus after the two-day meeting, which started on Wednesday, following the arrival of Deputy US Trade Representative Rick Switzer.
On Wednesday, US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer called India a “tough nut to crack” while testifying before the Senate Appropriations Committee, but added that the latest offer by New Delhi is the “best ever” the US has seen, India Today reported.
Meanwhile, the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) has stated in a note that India must insist on balanced outcomes in the ongoing trade negotiations with the US and remain extremely cautious about extending concessions on agricultural crops or genetically modified (GMO) products, ANI reported. The agency added that Washington should first cut tariffs on Indian exports to 25% from 50% if it is serious about the deal.
Trade frictions between the US and India have dampened interest of overseas investors in the Indian equity market. Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) have remained net sellers in all trading days of December, and have offloaded stake worth Rs. 16,470.35 crore.
On the domestic front, investors await the retail Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for November, which will be released on Friday.
The table below shows the percentage change of Indian Rupee (INR) against listed major currencies today. Indian Rupee was the weakest against the Swiss Franc.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | INR | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.05% | 0.13% | 0.06% | 0.16% | 0.69% | 0.55% | -0.07% | |
| EUR | -0.05% | 0.08% | 0.02% | 0.11% | 0.64% | 0.49% | -0.12% | |
| GBP | -0.13% | -0.08% | -0.04% | 0.04% | 0.56% | 0.41% | -0.20% | |
| JPY | -0.06% | -0.02% | 0.04% | 0.10% | 0.62% | 0.47% | -0.13% | |
| CAD | -0.16% | -0.11% | -0.04% | -0.10% | 0.53% | 0.39% | -0.23% | |
| AUD | -0.69% | -0.64% | -0.56% | -0.62% | -0.53% | -0.15% | -0.75% | |
| INR | -0.55% | -0.49% | -0.41% | -0.47% | -0.39% | 0.15% | -0.58% | |
| CHF | 0.07% | 0.12% | 0.20% | 0.13% | 0.23% | 0.75% | 0.58% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Indian Rupee from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent INR (base)/USD (quote).
Daily digest market movers: The Fed sees only one interest rate cut in 2026
- The Indian Rupee trades sharply lower against the US Dollar even as the latter underperforms, following the monetary policy announcement by the Federal Reserve (Fed) on Wednesday. As of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, strives to regain ground after refreshing seven-week low at open around 98.50.
- On Wednesday, the Fed lowered interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 3.50%-3.75%. The Fed was widely expected to do so as US labour market conditions remains weak for almost a year.
- The Fed’s dot plot showed that policymakers see only one interest rate cut in 2026 and Chairman Jerome Powell expressed that the “bar for further monetary easing is very high and we [The Fed] are “well positioned to wait to see how the economy evolves”.
- While market participants had already priced in a 25-bps interest rate reduction, and Fed’s Powell has not explicitly endorsed further rate cuts, the major factor that led to a sharp decline in the US Dollar appears to be comments from Powell pointing to cooling inflation expectations.
- “Evidence is growing that services inflation has come down, and goods inflation is entirely due to tariffs,” Powell said and added, “If there are no new tariff announcements, inflation from goods should peak in Q1.” Before the policy announcement, investors had anticipated that the Fed would announce a pause on further interest rate cuts as inflationary pressures have remained well above the 2% target.
Technical Analysis: USD/INR revisits all-time high near 90.70
USD/INR trades 0.45% higher at 90.54 on Thursday. The pair holds above a rising 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 89.7316, keeping the short-term trend pointed higher. The 20-day EMA has steepened in recent sessions, reinforcing trend support.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 67.6, turns up after a pullback, confirming bullish momentum.
Momentum would stay constructive while price action remains north of the rising 20-day EMA. A sustained close above that dynamic support would keep dips shallow and could extend the advance towards 92.00, whereas a break back below it would soften the bullish tone and open the downside towards the December 1 low at 89.51.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool)
Economic Indicator
Fed Interest Rate Decision
The Federal Reserve (Fed) deliberates on monetary policy and makes a decision on interest rates at eight pre-scheduled meetings per year. It has two mandates: to keep inflation at 2%, and to maintain full employment. Its main tool for achieving this is by setting interest rates – both at which it lends to banks and banks lend to each other. If it decides to hike rates, the US Dollar (USD) tends to strengthen as it attracts more foreign capital inflows. If it cuts rates, it tends to weaken the USD as capital drains out to countries offering higher returns. If rates are left unchanged, attention turns to the tone of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement, and whether it is hawkish (expectant of higher future interest rates), or dovish (expectant of lower future rates).
Last release:
Wed Dec 10, 2025 19:00
Frequency:
Irregular
Actual:
3.75%
Consensus:
3.75%
Previous:
4%
Source:
Federal Reserve
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