Stocks market today: The Indian stock market commenced the week on a downward trend, with both major indices starting off in the red on Monday, influenced by weak global signals and cautious investor sentiment as the August 1 tariff deadline approaches.
The Nifty 50 index began at 24,782.45, decreasing by 54.55 points or 0.22%, while the Sensex also experienced a drop at the opening, falling by 163.12 points or 0.20% to 81,299.97.
Market analysts linked the weak opening to global uncertainties and the impending tariff deadline. Ongoing negotiations between India and the United States have remained stalled regarding tariff reductions on agricultural and dairy goods, dampening hopes for an interim agreement before US President Donald Trump’s August 1 deadline.
This stands in contrast to the framework trade agreement reached between the US and the European Union over the weekend, which has alleviated concerns about a larger trade conflict between these two partners, who represent nearly a third of global commerce.
Market Views – Vinay Rajani, Senior Technical and Derivative Analyst, HDFC Securities
Nifty 50
Nifty 50 experienced its fourth consecutive weekly decline, shedding 0.53% and correcting 3.36% from its recent swing high of 25,669. Nifty 50 closed below its 50-day EMA (24953) for the first time since April 11, 2025, and also violated the previous swing low support of 24,882 on a closing basis. This bearish setup follows the formation of a double top pattern near 25,250 levels on July 24, 2025. Indicators and oscillators on the Nifty 50 daily chart have turned bearish, with MACD falling below the equilibrium line and RSI dropping below the 50 benchmark, signaling further weakness.
Immediate support for the Nifty 50 is identified at 24,742, which represents the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the entire rally from the April 2025 low (21,743) to the recent swing high (25,669). A break below 24,742 could lead to a further slide towards the positional support of 24,500, a strong base formed in June 2025.
In contrast, Bank Nifty’s technical setup appears relatively stronger than the Nifty 50, as it continues to hold above its 50-day EMA and an upward-sloping trendline support on the daily chart. While Nifty Midcap and Smallcap indices closed on a weak note, strong buying support is anticipated after a further couple of percentage points of fall from current levels.
The Nifty Healthcare index currently appears strongest on the charts, whereas the CPSE index has registered a fresh breakdown and is expected to decline further. Despite supportive factors like a falling Dollar Index and lower Brent crude oil prices, which typically benefit Indian equity markets, this advantage has not been reflected in the benchmark indices, as they have significantly underperformed global equity markets in the recent past.
Nifty 50 Strategy: The short-term trend for Nifty 50 has clearly turned weak. To negate this downtrend, the index needs to decisively surpass its recent swing high near 25,250. Traders are advised to adopt a bearish stance, though with expectations of a limited downside for the index. A strong base is observable in the Nifty 50 around the 24,500-24,600 band, which could be utilised by traders to exit short positions and potentially look for opportunities to initiate fresh long positions.
ETF Picks to buy in the near-term
Buy NIPPON INDIA ETF HANG SENG BEES( ₹429) | Target ₹465| Stop-loss ₹410
Hong Kong equity market benchmark index Hang-seng has been forming higher tops and higher bottoms on daily chart. Index has surpassed the crucial resistance of previous swing high of 24,875. Hangseng is one of the best performing indices from global equity markets year till date and same is expected to continue further. We recommend going long in NIPPON INDIA ETF HANG SENG BEES for utilising our bullish view on Hang-seng Index.
Buy ICICI Prudential Nifty FMCG ETF( ₹58.5): | Target Rs. 62.5| Stop-loss ₹56
FMCG sector seems to have bottomed out as many largecap FMCG stocks have reached oversold zone on the short-term charts. The primary trend of the majority of the FMCG stocks has been bullish as they have been holding their trend above the medium-to-long-term moving averages. FMCG is one of the sectors which underperformed Nifty 50 in this calendar year and from here we can expect mean reversion by outperformance from it. FMCG sector as a consumption theme backed by healthy monsoon progress and strong quarterly updates could perform well in coming months.
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations given in this article are those of individual analysts. These do not represent the views of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.
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