CNBC's The China Connection newsletter: How a gold-buying spree helps the yuan go global

Hi, this is Evelyn, writing to you from Beijing. Welcome to the latest edition of The China Connection — a snapshot of what I’m seeing and hearing from local businesses.

Buying gold every month for nearly two years is just part of China’s plan to narrow a gap with the U.S. on holdings of the precious metal. What does that do to the yuan?

Hong Kong, home to one of the world’s largest stock exchanges, last month confirmed its efforts to develop a yuan-denominated gold market.

In a major move last year, the special administrative region of China linked its gold vault with one in Shanghai, allowing physical gold delivery to international institutions in Hong Kong denominated in yuan.

Over the next three years, Hong Kong plans to expand the capacity of its Shanghai-linked gold vault from 150 tonnes to over 2,000 tonnes, S&P’s Chang pointed out.

That’s nearly as large as all the gold reserves in China, he added. “If Hong Kong is able to complete this transaction, then it would become of the largest gold trading centers in the world.”

The U.S. still has the largest gold reserves in the world at over 8,100 tonnes, according to World Gold Council figures for the second quarter. China held about one-third of that at over 2,300 tonnes.

“China’s 23-month gold buying streak reinforces the credibility of the renminbi’s internationalization drive,” said Hao Zhou, head of research and chief economist at Guotai Junan International in Hong Kong.

“By steadily increasing gold reserves, Beijing is strengthening the long-term backing of its financial system and reducing reliance on dollar-denominated reserve assets,” he said. “While gold alone will not determine the RMB’s global role, it enhances confidence in the currency and supports broader efforts to expand its use in trade, investment and official reserves.”

Gold accumulation by China and other countries’ central banks will help reduce global reliance on U.S. Treasurys and U.S. dollar reserves, said Xia Yingying, head of the precious metals and new energy research group, at Hangzhou-based Nanhua Futures. That’s according to a CNBC translation of the Chinese.

“This will suppress the U.S. dollar’s premium from being a core reserve currency, and raise the risk premium associated with the dollar regarding credit, fiscal policy and sanctions,” Xia said. “In the medium to-long-term it will gradually weaken the U.S. dollar’s monopolistic position in the global reserve system.”

China’s growing gold purchases, however, also come as U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Friday named gold-standard supporter Judy Shelton as a senior advisor focused on China.

The Asian economy’s rise as a manufacturing powerhouse benefited from the U.S. decision to abandon the gold standard more than 50 years ago. “With the delinking of the dollar and gold, and the consequent rise in the oil price, western manufacturing became less economic, and capital went to Asia in search of cheap labor and overall lower costs,” wrote the central bank research group OMFIF in 2021.

While China is the largest consumer and producer of gold, it is just one of many developing economies that has expanded its reserves since 2022, according to S&P. The World Gold Council showed Poland has increased its gold reserves by more tonnes than China.

China’s DeepSeek is considering expanding its latest funding round to as much as 100 billion yuan ($14.9 billion), double its earlier target, with state-backed funds and corporate investors jostling for stakes, people familiar with the matter told CNBC. AI startup Manus raises $500 million from IDG Capital and others, indicating investors aren’t deterred by Beijing’s unprecedented order to block Meta’s short-lived $2 billion acquisition.

China and Europe agree to halve Chinese hybrid vehicle exports

European trade commissioner Maroš Sefčovič said Friday that China has agreed to halve its exports of hybrid cars to the bloc. China’s auto market is on track for its worst year since 2021, with sales down by more than 20% over roughly the first three quarters of the year, according to China Passenger Car Association data as of Sept. 27.

After a yearslong slump, China’s real estate market may be set for a turnaround

Residential real estate prices may hit a bottom in the third quarter of 2028, S&P Global Ratings said. It added that prices in China’s largest cities, such as Beijing and Shanghai, will likely recover as soon as next year.