S&P 500 rose following not crushingly high CPI, (correctly) betting on the Fed not to overplay the hawkish hand, and not to go the rate hikes path given the job market status. The dominant factor though have been the Pakistan negotiations to wrap up somehow the Iran war while markets are looking past Hormuz not being truly open yet (and ceasefire not being observed where it matters to Iran and many observers familiar with the original 10-point plan). China playing a constructive role in the negotiations (have you noticed Kuomintang opposition leader visiting Shanghai?), and Saudi Arabia with UAE have a lot to reflect on – I‘m saying so to highlight market focus and expectation of deescalation (noticed also Iranian frozen assets release ahead of the negotiations as IRNA says?) and making hydrocarbons flow again (I‘m not even bringing up the importance of helium for semiconductors).
Have you also noticed that each new threat this week forced less of a decline in risk taking appetite, Friday included? At the same time, markets haven‘t been and aren‘t jubilant about „peace is here“ as a lot of work is still ahead in adjusting to new realities on the ground – the desire and wish to come back from the cliff we were facing early in the week, is obviously clear.
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